There has been a cautious reaction to the flurry of polls published at 7pm London time as political analysts furiously work through possible combinations of parties that could govern Spain.

There are challenges for both the left and right wing blocs. Despite an apparent surge in votes for the far-right Vox party, support for the conservative Popular party (PP) has collapsed. A would-be right-wing combination between Vox, PP and the Citizens party would not reach the magic 176 seats required to control Spain’s parliament.

For the left-wing bloc, while the socialist PSOE party look set to be the largest group in parliament, prime minister Pedro Sanchez might still require support from Catalan nationalist parties even with the support of Podemos.

Various snap polls have been published and it’s looking good for the incumbent socialist prime minister Pedro Sanchez, who will take 116-121 seats in parliament according the GAD3 poll, which was conducted yesterday.

The poll also shows that support for the anti-immigration, anti-feminist, anti-Catalan independence party Vox is set to get around 12% of the vote.

Spaniards have finished voting. We will have a post up on the latest polling data shortly.

We will have a snap poll at 7pm London time. Treat it with caution. They forecasted a big turnout for Podemos in June 2016 that did not materialise once the votes were counted.

An attack and sexual assault on a woman at the San Fermín festival in 2016 has been one of the galvanising points for the anti-feminist, far-right Vox party.

In December, a court in northern Spain upheld a controversial verdict that five men accused of gang-raping a woman at the running of the bulls festival in Pamplona two years ago were guilty of sexual abuse rather than the more serious offence of rape.

The ‘Wolf Pack’ case – so known because of the name the men gave their WhatsApp group – prompted protests across Spain and led the then-government to launch a review of sexual offences legislation. Vox has used the case to attack the feminist movement in Spain.

Journalist Meaghan Beatley wrote a long read on the subject for the Guardian earlier this week.

Sunday’s vote is the first general election since the unofficial Catalan independence referendum in 2017, and Catalans are out in force to cast their vote. According to Spain’s interior ministry, nearly two thirds of eligible voters in Catalonia had voted as of 6pm local time (64.19%).

Remember, how the region votes could prove decisive to the hopes of the incumbent socialist prime minister Pedro Sanchez who previously relied on the support of the Catalan and Basque nationalist parties to govern. Sanchez called the vote after the Catalan secessionists joined forces with rightwing parties to vote down his government’s budget. Whether Catalans back Sanchez or pro-independence parties could decide who governs Spain.

There’s “moderate optimism” in the Sanchez camp due to the high voter turnout, according to journalist Daniel Basteiro.

Come 7pm London time, all eyes will be on the predictions for the anti-feminist, anti-immigration, anti-Catalan independence Vox party. They are expected to get around 10% of the vote. That share might be enough to form a right-wing coalition government with the conservative People’s party and the centre-right Citizens party.

If you want some background on Vox, Sam Jones’ dispatch from Seville in December is a good place to start. The far-right party won 12 seats in the Andalucían regional election at the end of 2018 and has gone from strength to strength since the unexpected surge.

Like all populist parties around the world, Vox has used social media to provoke and attack its opponents. Earlier today, the far-right party tweeted a Lord of the Rings meme with the caption “Let the battle commence!”. Vox is represented by Aragorn taking on an army of Uruk-hai, an advanced breed of orcs, at the battle of Helm’s deep. But in the meme, the orcs are replaced by the rainbow flag, the women’s movement symbol and many other groups and organisations that Vox oppose.

There’s been a big surge in voter turnout across Spain. More than 21 million Spaniards have voted as of 6pm local time, according to the country’s interior ministry. That’s 3.3 million more than the same stage in 2016, when the turnout was 51.21%.

The first vote predictions won’t be out for a couple hours, so there’s plenty of reading time. Our Madrid correspondent Sam Jones will be filing updates from the Spanish capital throughout the evening and he’s written a very useful guide to Sunday’s vote.

What’s happening and how did we get here?

On Sunday 28 April, Spain will hold its third general election in four years. The poll was called by the country’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, after rightwing parties and separatist Catalan parties rejected his 2019 budget in February.

The Spanish Socialist Workers’ party (PSOE) took office in June 2018 after using a successful motion of no-confidence to oust the corruption-mired People’s party (PP) government of Mariano Rajoy.

But Sánchez’s minority government, which has held only 84 of the 350 seats in the Spanish congress of deputies following the last general election in 2016, has faced an uphill battle.

Critics accuse Sánchez of taking too soft an approach to the vexed question of Catalan independence and being too beholden to the parties that helped him clinch power.