2.32pm EDT 14:32 What happens now? There has been a cautious reaction to the flurry of polls published at 7pm London time as political analysts furiously work through possible combinations of parties that could govern Spain. Screens show different TV channels giving estimates of general elections as Spain waits for official results in Madrid on
There has been a cautious reaction to the flurry of polls published at 7pm London time as political analysts furiously work through possible combinations of parties that could govern Spain.
Screens show different TV channels giving estimates of general elections as Spain waits for official results in Madrid on April 28, 2019. Photograph: Gabriel Bouys/AFP/Getty Images
There are challenges for both the left and right wing blocs. Despite an apparent surge in votes for the far-right Vox party, support for the conservative Popular party (PP) has collapsed. A would-be right-wing combination between Vox, PP and the Citizens party would not reach the magic 176 seats required to control Spain’s parliament.
For the left-wing bloc, while the socialist PSOE party look set to be the largest group in parliament, prime minister Pedro Sanchez might still require support from Catalan nationalist parties even with the support of Podemos.
Polls: socialists to win most seats, far-right Vox party surges
Various snap polls have been published and it’s looking good for the incumbent socialist prime minister Pedro Sanchez, who will take 116-121 seats in parliament according the GAD3 poll, which was conducted yesterday.
The poll also shows that support for the anti-immigration, anti-feminist, anti-Catalan independence party Vox is set to get around 12% of the vote.
Matthew Bennett (@matthewbennett)
22. BREAK: the GAD3 poll (not from today, not an exit poll, up to yesterday).
We will have a snap poll at 7pm London time. Treat it with caution. They forecasted a big turnout for Podemos in June 2016 that did not materialise once the votes were counted.
Envelopes with votes lay inside a ballot box at a polling station during the Spanish general election on April 28, 2019 in La Navata , Spain. Photograph: Juan Naharro Giménez/Getty Images
An attack and sexual assault on a woman at the San Fermín festival in 2016 has been one of the galvanising points for the anti-feminist, far-right Vox party.
Protesters demonstrate against the release of the ‘La Manada’ (Wolf Pack) gang members outside the Minister of Justice on June 22, 2018 in Madrid, Spain. Photograph: Pablo Blázquez Domínguez/Getty Images
Journalist Meaghan Beatley wrote a long read on the subject for the Guardian earlier this week.
Sunday’s vote is the first general election since the unofficial Catalan independence referendum in 2017, and Catalans are out in force to cast their vote. According to Spain’s interior ministry, nearly two thirds of eligible voters in Catalonia had voted as of 6pm local time (64.19%).
People line up outside a polling station to cast their vote for the general election in Barcelona, Spain, Sunday, April 28, 2019. Photograph: Emilio Morenatti/AP
Remember, how the region votes could prove decisive to the hopes of the incumbent socialist prime minister Pedro Sanchez who previously relied on the support of the Catalan and Basque nationalist parties to govern. Sanchez called the vote after the Catalan secessionists joined forces with rightwing parties to vote down his government’s budget. Whether Catalans back Sanchez or pro-independence parties could decide who governs Spain.
There’s “moderate optimism” in the Sanchez camp due to the high voter turnout, according to journalist Daniel Basteiro.
Daniel Basteiro (@basteiro)
“Optimismo moderado” en Ferraz. “Contentos por la participación, que tradicionalmente beneficia a la izquierda”. Nervios pero buenas sensaciones entre algunos de los colaboradores de @sanchezcastejon, que seguirá la jornada electoral desde la sede del PSOE.
Come 7pm London time, all eyes will be on the predictions for the anti-feminist, anti-immigration, anti-Catalan independence Vox party. They are expected to get around 10% of the vote. That share might be enough to form a right-wing coalition government with the conservative People’s party and the centre-right Citizens party.
Spanish far-right party VOX leader and candidate for prime minister Santiago Abascal speaks to the press outside a polling station in Madrid during general elections in Spain on April 28, 2019. Photograph: Oscar Del Pozo/AFP/Getty Images
If you want some background on Vox, Sam Jones’ dispatch from Seville in December is a good place to start. The far-right party won 12 seats in the Andalucían regional election at the end of 2018 and has gone from strength to strength since the unexpected surge.
Like all populist parties around the world, Vox has used social media to provoke and attack its opponents. Earlier today, the far-right party tweeted a Lord of the Rings meme with the caption “Let the battle commence!”. Vox is represented by Aragorn taking on an army of Uruk-hai, an advanced breed of orcs, at the battle of Helm’s deep. But in the meme, the orcs are replaced by the rainbow flag, the women’s movement symbol and many other groups and organisations that Vox oppose.
Spanish interior ministry: 60.75% turnout with 2 hours to go
There’s been a big surge in voter turnout across Spain. More than 21 million Spaniards have voted as of 6pm local time, according to the country’s interior ministry. That’s 3.3 million more than the same stage in 2016, when the turnout was 51.21%.
People line-up to cast their vote outside a polling station during Spain’s general election in Madrid, Sunday, April 28, 2019. Photograph: Bernat Armangué/AP
The first vote predictions won’t be out for a couple hours, so there’s plenty of reading time. Our Madrid correspondent Sam Jones will be filing updates from the Spanish capital throughout the evening and he’s written a very useful guide to Sunday’s vote.
But Sánchez’s minority government, which has held only 84 of the 350 seats in the Spanish congress of deputies following the last general election in 2016, has faced an uphill battle.
Critics accuse Sánchez of taking too soft an approach to the vexed question of Catalan independence and being too beholden to the parties that helped him clinch power.
Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Spain’s 2019 general election. I’m Patrick Greenfield and I’ll be keeping you up-to-date with the very latest from the third public vote in four years.
People take ballots before casting their vote at a polling station on April 28, 2019 in Barcelona, Spain. Photograph: David Ramos/Getty Images
Polling stations across the country have been very busy, with 41.49% of eligible voters having cast their votes by 1pm London time. That’s a substantial increase from the last vote, when 36.87% had voted by the same stage. We will have another update on region-specific turnout figures from Spain’s interior ministry shortly.
The prime minister Pedro Sanchez and his Spanish Socialist Workers party (PSOE) are expected to receive the most votes, but that’s not the full story. The far-right Vox party are poised to achieve a national breakthrough and could become kingmakers in a right-wing coalition.
Spanish Prime Minister and Socialist Party candidate Pedro Sanchez casts his vote inside a polling station during Spain’s general election in Pozuelo de Alarcon, outskirts of Madrid, Sunday, April 28, 2019. Photograph: Bernat Armangué/AP
If there’s no decisive outcome, we will most likely do this all over again in a few months.
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