We’ve just been spending a bit of time checking off the many seats that were close pending pre-poll votes. Most of these have now reported. There are three seats that are quite close with a lot of pre-polls yet to report and I’d like to wait until the morning to call them. They are Eden-Monaro
We’ve just been spending a bit of time checking off the many seats that were close pending pre-poll votes.
Most of these have now reported.
There are three seats that are quite close with a lot of pre-polls yet to report and I’d like to wait until the morning to call them.
They are Eden-Monaro and Hunter (both Labor) and Swan (Liberal).
These three seats look likely to go with the incumbent party.
With those added to the party totals we get to 73 Coalition and 65 Labor, along with three independents and three members of minor parties.
There are then another seven seats that I think are too close to call. Labor is leading in Chisholm, Cowan, Lilley and Macquarie, although they are projected to fall behind in Chisholm.
The Liberal party is leading in Bass and Boothby. Independent MP Kerryn Phelps is narrowly ahead in Wentworth.
The best-case scenario for Labor would see them with 71 seats, against 73 for the Coalition and seven crossbenchers. In that scenario they would probably need six of the seven crossbenchers to form government.
Bearing this in mind it is no longer possible to see a path to government for Labor.
The best-case scenario for the Coalition is that they win 80 seats, but it is still quite possible they will fall short of a majority and need to rely on the crossbench to form government.
It is remarkable how similar this is to the last election. At that election the Liberal-National Coalition won 76 seats to Labor’s 69, along with five crossbenchers.
Since then, independent Zali Steggall has won Warringah, and potentially Phelps will win the seat of Wentworth, which was held by Malcolm Turnbull in 2016.
Labor has lost Braddon, Lindsay, Longman and Herbert. They have gained Gilmore and now hold Corangamite and Dunkley after they were redrawn as notional Labor seats.
That means a net loss of one seat for Labor.
Among the seven seats still in play, Labor is trailing in their seat of Bass, but just ahead in the Liberal seat of Chisholm. Again, that would equal no change.